China is the world leader in low-emission trucking while Tesla enthusiasts and logistics corporations impatiently await the arrival of the first electric Semis. According to Bloomberg, sales of light commercial electric vehicles have increased from 1% of the market to 10% over the past two years. This development may play a significant role in the early commencement of the peak oil demand.
Sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks are also increasing in China. The market share of electric semi trailer sales increased from almost nil two years ago to 3.4% by mid-2022. The year’s trend is continuing significantly up and to the right, according to As Bloomberg ’s Colin McKerracher puts it .
“China is the world’s largest market for commercial vehicles, so what happens there has an impact on the rest of the globe. China is far ahead of practically all other nations in this area with a 10% electric share. With more than 20% of its light commercial vehicle sales already being electric in 2022, only South Korea has a greater adoption rate. August saw sales of 18,000 light commercial vehicles in China.
In China, the majority of big trucks are still used in urban areas rather than on long-distance routes. As China adjusts the mix of legislative, technological, and economic levers available to hasten the adoption of heavy vehicles with zero emissions and increased capabilities, this use may increase quickly. According to Bloomberg, this will happen sooner rather than later.
What about trucks powered by hydrogen? Despite the fact that several fuel cell trucks are in use, battery-powered big trucks are currently more cost-effective for use in cities. We might have a clearer picture as infrastructure develops and hydrogen prices fall, particularly in the context of long-haul trucking. a hydrogen transportation trial in the UK is described here.
The quantity of fuel cell and electric trucks entering the market is drastically different, according to a BNEF analysis of upcoming model debuts. Over the next few years, there will be a number of corporate net-zero targets that will pressure large logistics fleet operators to start putting zero-emission vehicles on the road. Electric vehicles have a significant advantage.
In the near future, China intends to use 34,000 vehicles and vans with interchangeable batteries. According to data gathered by BNEF, the number of commercial battery swap stations installed in China last year increased by 318%. … As of September, more than 4,400 heavy-duty battery-swapping trucks have been deployed in only one city, Tangshan. That exceeds the fleet of heavy-duty fuel-cell trucks in the world.
Read more about Australia’s groundbreaking work here with electric semi-trainers and battery swapping.
Oil corporations have turned to commercial vehicles to maintain demand growth as oil consumption for passenger cars peaks as a result of China’s market’s adoption of electric vehicles. According to Bloomberg, they will be deeply disappointed. It makes sense that OPEC is reducing production. “Commercial vehicle development keeps oil demand climbing, but not for long, according to BNEF’s 2022 Road Fuel Outlook. The estimate for this year predicts that the peak oil consumption for road transport will occur in 2027, but if sales of electric trucks continue to soar in China, that date may be moved up.
Undoubtedly, the future is a fascinating place to live.
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