My response is possibly, depending on how you define sales and how the sales of last year’s leaders have changed or remained the same. We won’t be certain until next year because sales numbers lag by three to six months, but I’ll give the facts I found so you can make your own judgment. I looked up the best-selling automobiles from the previous year and then did some research on those models to learn as much as I could about current sales. For the sake of this essay, the third quarter of 2022 is defined as the present, not as the actual sales on the Saturday afternoon that the piece is being written.
ME AND THE TESLA MODEL Y: A HISTORY Model Y has been a favorite of mine ever since I first learned about it. I initially had no idea why everyone was so obsessed about crossovers, so I did some research and then created this essay. In summary, people prefer crossovers because they have a lot more cargo space than sedans, sit a little bit higher (which improves visibility and makes it easier for older drivers to exit the vehicle), and typically have a bit more ground clearance and all-wheel drive so you can engage in very mild off-roading. They cost a little bit more and get somewhat worse gas mileage because of these extra amenities, but they still drive and park more like cars than large SUVs or trucks. It’s a great combo that is gaining popularity everywhere.
Although most were disappointed that the Model Y was simply a taller Model 3, I could tell right away that it would be a huge hit because the Model 3 didn’t require a radical redesign; it simply needed to be a bit taller to hold more stuff and a third row to seat more people. Tesla really downplayed how great the product would be at the Model Y unveiling to avoid hurting Model 3 sales. This post I published following the reveal detailed why I believed the Model Y could compete with 8 distinct Toyota vehicles (4 Toyota models and 4 Lexus models). I also mentioned the significant development cost savings for Tesla as a result.
We already have two Model Y crossovers in our family, and I would like to convince my other daughter to get a third, but we’ll see if that occurs. My only gripe is that I wish my Model Y had track mode so that I could more easily drift it (I seem to remember Elon promised this is coming with acceleration boost, but I havent heard anything in a while on this).
2021 and the first quarter of 2022’s top sellers I looked for trustworthy resources of global 2021 data in order to discover this. I selected Felipe Munoz’s examination of 106 international markets.
From this point on, I was aware that the Toyota RAV4 and the Toyota Corolla were the best options. I thought it was improbable in this scenario that one of the lower ranking models (other than the Tesla Model Y) would rise to overtake those two leaders. The most recent global sales figures I could discover were from Focus2Move for the first quarter of 2022 because it takes around 2 months to gather global sales data, which means the second quarter results won’t be accessible until around the first of September. Sales of the Toyota RAV4 were 215,000 and those of the Toyota Corolla were 275,000 in the first quarter of 2022.
ESTIMATING TOYOTA RAV4 AND COROLLA GLOBAL SALES FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD QUARTER I read all of the production operation notices on the Toyota website for the last 9 months in order to forecast Toyota’s sales for the second and third quarters. Reading the notices gave me the impression that Toyota wants to produce more cars than it can. I’m assuming that Tesla and Toyota sell each and every vehicle they produce. Based on reading those reports, I predict that sales will be 2% lower in the second quarter than they were in the first, and 4% lower in the third. This isn’t because there isn’t enough demand; instead, production problems, which are primarily caused by chip shortages, are the main cause. Therefore, I predict that Toyota will sell 206,400 RAV4 crossovers and 264,000 Corolla cars during the third quarter. Additionally, Toyota is updating the Corolla for 2023, which should somewhat boost demand but may result in manufacturing delays. Since stockpiles are so low, production delays would impact sales rather than demand (for Toyotas business model at least).
How is Tesla able to dramatically increase global production when others can hardly match it? To significantly improve production, Tesla is making significant expenditures. Toyota appears to be only attempting to resume its prior record-breaking manufacturing levels. It seems to be always whining about how Covid-19 is harming its suppliers (even though it has, to varying degrees, affected all car manufacturers over the past two years or more). Elon has frequently emphasized the three advantages that including in the Q2 conference call, Tesla has over other brands when it comes to addressing supply-chain challenges.
If there are problems with the original semiconductor’s availability, Tesla has more and better software developers who can swiftly rewrite software drivers that let them use a different chip in its place. Additionally, Tesla employs fewer, more intricate chips and executes numerous operations on them. Modern chips have fared better in the present chip crisis than many other brands’ older models. Unlike most companies, Tesla has greater vertical integration, allowing it more control. To some extent, resource shifting can be used to boost output. For several years, Tesla has aimed to raise output by at least 70% annually. Tesla’s public target is 50%, but it is obvious that the internal target is far higher. Suppliers are likely to favor Tesla over competitors because to this, the fact that Tesla never (to my knowledge) cancelled any supplier orders during the Covid slowdowns during the previous two years, and Tesla’s superior financial strength and reputation. Tesla will likely merely store the additional chips if it purchases 90% more chips for 2022 than it did for 2021, but suppliers only provide it 70% more, and due of Covid shutdowns, Tesla can only produce 50% more vehicles (the company will need them before long). MODEL Y ESTIMATES FOR THE THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTER BY TROY TESLIKES I assembled this table using Troys recent tweet (I subscribe to his Patreon, so I had these figures a few days earlier, but I cant share them until he publishes them on Twitter).
CONCLUSION The average selling price should be the last consideration. I’m just going to utilize the base price in the US for the sake of simplicity. Although I am aware that the ASP offers options and has different costs in different countries.
206,400 RAV4 multiplied by $26,975 equals Q3 revenue of $5.6 billion. In Q3 sales, 264,000 Corollas at a cost of $20,425 generated $5.4 billion. 224,344 Model Ys multiplied by $65,990 results in Q3 revenue of $14.8 billion. As you can see from the study I did above, Tesla is probably going to sell more SUVs than any other car worldwide in the third quarter and more vehicles overall by the fourth. In terms of revenue, Tesla is now producing around three times as much as these top sellers, and that advantage will only grow as they plan to roughly double Model Y production over the next two years from current levels!
I should disclose that I own shares of Hertz (HTZ), XPeng (XPEV), BYD (BYDDY), Tesla (TSLA), and Nio (NIO). However, I don’t provide any kind of investment advise here.
Do you value the unique reporting and cleantech news coverage on CleanTechnica? Consider becoming an Patreon patron, a CleanTechnica member, supporter, technician, or ambassador. Don’t miss a cleantech story, will ya? Register for daily news updates from CleanTechnica by email. Or follow us on Google News ! Want to advertise with CleanTechnica, send us a tip, or propose a speaker for our podcast CleanTech Talk? You can reach us here.
